The Razorbacks shocked the world by beating Gonzaga to set up an Elite Eight showdown with the Blue Devils. Although they proved they are giant slayers by defeating the tournament favorites in their Sweet 16 game, no. 4 seed Arkansas is a -200 underdog against no. 2 seed Duke.
But is another upset on the cards for this March Madness matchup at the Chase Center on Saturday? We look at the stats and break down their chances of winning this NCAA West Region final game.
Arkansas vs. Duke: Game Info
- Date/Time: March 26, 8:39 p.m. ET
- Arena: Chase Center
- Where to watch: CBS
- Bovada has Duke at +375 to win the tournament
Arkansas Is A Defensive Powerhouse
Online sportsbooks have no. 2 East seed Duke as a -180 favorite on the moneyline (64.29% implied win probability) and the Razorbacks at +155 to reach the Final Four (39.22% implied win probability).
But if this tourney has taught us anything, it’s that you can never write off Arkansas. After placing South Dakota transfer Stanley Umude into the starting lineup in January, the Razorbacks have won 17 of their last 19 games.
Umude’s defensive strengths have transformed Arkansas into a formidable opponent. The Razorbacks showed how good they are at defending by limiting the free-scoring Zags to 68 points. As they impressively outmuscled Gonzaga to force turnovers and disrupt their high-low offense, the Hogs look on track to upset the odds again this Saturday.
A last Shot at the Bigtime for Coach K?
The Blue Devils have dusted themselves off after a poor end to the season and are now in a position to give coach Mike Krzyzewski a fairytale ending to his career.
Although it won’t be easy, forward Paolo Banchero has the scoring prowess to end the Razorbacks’ March Madness run. This young star averages 17 points per game (one of only five Division I players) and managed to score 22 on 7-for-12 shooting against Texas Tech.
Arkansas will be tough cookie, but because the Blue Devils average 80.2 points per game and are one of the best attacking teams in the country, they should be able to break their opponents down to get the win. It will be a fascinating attack vs. defense game, as Arkansas is 53rd offensively, and Duke is 47th defensively. Still, Krzyzewski’s team has the edge.
March Madness Betting Info: No. 2 Duke
- First Round: Defeated No. 15 Cal State Fullerton 78-61
- Second Round: Defeated No. 7 Michigan State 85-76
- Sweet 16: Defeated No. 3 Texas Tech 78-73
- Leading scorer: Paolo Banchero (17 ppg)
- KenPom rating: 11 Overall, 4 Offense, 45 Defense
- March Madness stat: Duke is shooting 56.1% from two.
Sweet 16 Game: Texas Tech
Duke got this stage after surviving a slugfest against Texas Tech. After trading blows throughout the game, Paolo Banchero and Jeremy Roach put the Blue Devils in front. However, with 15 seconds left, the Red Raiders were within two. Unfortunately for the Red Raiders, AJ Griffin pulled off some impressive free throws to send them packing.
March Madness Betting Info: No. 4 Arkansas
- First Round: Defeated No. 13 Vermont 75-71
- Second Round: Defeated No. 12 New Mexico State 53-48
- Sweet 16: Defeated No. 1 Gonzaga 74-68
- Leading scorer: JD Notae (18.4 ppg)
- KenPom rating: 17 Overall, 53 Offense, 11 Defense
- March Madness stat: Arkansas has forced 40 turnovers through three games in the tournament
Sweet 16 Game: Gonzaga
Arkansas defied the Vegas oddsmakers’ predictions by beating the top team in the tournament on Thursday. The Razorbacks put on a defensive masterclass to take a three-point lead into the half before holding their own to beat the Zags. JD Notae was on fire and finished the game with 21 points, six rebounds, and six assists.
March Madness West Region Betting Info
|Season||No. 1 Seed||West Region Winner (Seed)|
|2019||Gonzaga||Texas Tech (#3)|
|2013||Gonzaga||Wichita State (#9)|
|2012||Michigan State||Louisville (#4)|
View the latest betting lines for all Elite Eight games.